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原标题：马斯克警告美联储：大幅加息，将面临通缩风险大家好，我是老李，关注我，了解更多。

二 |     BRUSSELS -- For the first time, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined a meeting of more than 50 defense leaders from around the world Wednesday to make a personal pitch for military aid, in the face of lagging political support in the U.S. and new pressure on allies to send weapons to bolster Israel’s war with Hamas.His presence underscored growing concerns about cracks in what has been staunch international backing for Kyiv in its war against Russia's invasion, and worries that Ukrainian forces haven't made measurable progress in the counteroffensive, as winter closes in.“Next Monday, we will mark the 600th day of our resistance to Russia’s full scale aggression against our people, against Ukraine. And today, no one can say for sure how many more days we will have to defend our independence and to defend our identity,” Zelenskyy told the gathering as they opened the meeting. “But we can already say several things which I think are important. First, Putin will not achieve Ukraine. Second, Russia cannot afford a new arms race. And third, democracy can win this battle.”The meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, hosted by the U.S., comes as Ukraine is desperately seeking more weapons to help its troops regain ground from Russian forces before the muddy weather sets in. But political chaos in Congress stalled approval of new Ukraine funding, and there has been growing opposition among some lawmakers to any increase in spending. Speaking as he entered NATO headquarters, Zelenskyy noted the Israel war, and said Ukrainians understand such tragedy. But he was also quick to detail Ukraine's ongoing need for air defense systems and long-range missiles “to push Russia out of our land.”U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters traveling with him to Brussels that support for Ukraine continues unabated. He said a number of allies will announce they are sending additional weapons and other support to Kyiv. A key demand has been more air defense systems and munitions.“The energy, in my view, is still there,” said Austin. “And I will reassure them that we remain committed to this.”He echoed those thoughts as he opened the meeting, asserting that Ukraine is making steady progress in the war. And he said allies during this meeting will focus not only on meeting Kyiv's immediate needs but also on setting up plans to coordinate investments in Ukraine's future forceThe contact group is the main forum for raising contributions of weapons, equipment and training for Kyiv’s war effort. It meets about once a month, in person and virtually, and this is the 16th gathering.Zelenskyy, who was greeted with applause as he entered the building, went immediately into a private session with Austin and U.S. Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.Speaking to reporters as he came in, Zelenskyy reiterated his country's need for long-range missiles and ammunition.“It’s very important that there are priorities. There are air defense systems. These are not just basic words. These are very concrete things and we need them,” Zelenskyy said.Following that meeting, the 31 allies and Ukraine will take part in the first NATO-Ukraine Council at this level. The forum was formally established in July as part of efforts to bring Kyiv closer to the alliance. It allows NATO and Kyiv to discuss issues of common interest and concern.The new package of U.S. aid includes AIM-9M missiles for air defense, counter-drone systems, munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), artillery, electronic warfare equipment, demolition munitions, anti-armor systems and more than 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition.The weapons are provided under presidential drawdown authority, so will be taken from Pentagon stocks and delivered quickly to the battlefield. ___Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine。马斯克周五晚上在推特上表示，“美联储大幅加息有通缩的风险”。此话一出，底下评论就炸了，就像抖音的评论区一样，持有不同观点的喷子互喷。美联储主席鲍威尔最近在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的演讲中强调了美联储的鹰派立场。他指出，美联储与通胀的斗争将“带来一些痛苦”。许多人担心美联储加息，包括参议员伊丽莎白沃伦（D-MA），她表示她“非常担心”美联储的行动将使美国经济陷入衰退。马斯克的推文是在方舟投资首席执行官凯茜伍德（Cathie Wood）的分析之后发布的，她周三警告通货紧缩。“美联储正在根据滞后指标做出货币政策决策：就业和核心通胀，”她详细阐述道：

     黄金和铜等领先的通胀指标正在降低通缩风险。甚至油价也从峰值下跌了35%以上，抹去了今年的大部分涨幅。    

“作为最好的通胀指标之一，金价在两年多前的2020年8月达到2，075美元的峰值，并下跌了约15%。木材价格下跌超过60%，铜-30%，铁矿石-60%，DRAM-46%，原油-35%，“伍德解释说。“再往下游，零售商似乎正在库存中游来游去，他们可能被迫大幅打折，以清除假日商品的货架。令人惊讶的是，到年底，CPI和PCE平减指数可能会出现通缩，“这位高管补充说。“在管道中，通货膨胀正在变成通货紧缩。马斯克在八月份表示，通货膨胀已经达到顶峰，“将迅速下降”。

三 | 他还预测，我们可能会经历持续约18个月的经济衰退。美国的通胀正在失控，当前美国需要想尽一切办法来避免通胀失控，美国想要控制通胀的唯一根本办法就是加息，而且是大幅加息，根本控制不住通胀。但问题在于跟上世纪80年代不同，当时美国债务水平很低，所以美联储哪怕一口气加息到20%，对于美国政府的债务压力也没有太大影响，但是当前美国的债务总额高达28.3万亿美金，一旦加息就会严重影响美国后续借新还旧的成本。当前美国股市泡沫化如此严重，一旦加息将同时戳破美国股市和债务的泡沫，必然导致美国金融市场全面崩盘，这是美国同样无法承受的灾难性结果。艰难的时期会带来真正的友谊，那些在熊市期间仍然在磨炼和学习的人是那些将长期留在这个行业的人，他们和你一起渡过难关，牛熊。一个人的加密道路总是那样坎坷。你需要加入一个由一群志同道合的人组成的队伍。掌握最新消息。公众号：蓝鲸community感谢观看，关注我，我们下期再见！返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：