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'Katy, Bar the Door': Why Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan is Fraught With Risk of Military Escalation_我的网站

A |     　　合肥8月23日电(江婉琪 赵强)在安徽省蚌埠市五河县朱顶镇，一些牛舍屋顶上铺满了深蓝色光伏板，正静静地把阳光转化为电流。

B |     "Remember what happened in 1983? Two days after 241 Marines were blown up in Lebanon, the USA invaded tiny Grenada. Overnight, the previous headlines disappeared. I think we are seeing the same today. NATO is losing badly in Ukraine and it’s going to be a long winter for the West. Pounding its imperial chest with Taiwan is now what the MSM is reporting, much less so Ukraine," suggests Jeff J. Brown, author of "The China Trilogy," editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland, and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission.,If Pelosi travels to Taiwan, this would be the first time a high-ranking US politician visits the place in 25 years. Last time it was Newt Gingrich, then-speaker of the US House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the Chinese leadership's discontent.,"I said firmly, 'We want you to understand, we will defend Taiwan. Period,'" Gingrich told the press at the time, as quoted by The New York Times. However, Clinton administration officials made it clear that Gingrich "was speaking for himself.",Likewise, it appears that Pelosi's apparent visit to Taiwan is not in line with the Biden administration's China policy, argues Francesco Sisci, a Beijing-based China expert, author, and columnist.,"American politics is not set like an omniscient Leviathan," the China expert says. "The Congress, the Senate, the executive all move according to different agendas which do not often coincide and are in conflict with one another. The issue is that there is a growing anti-Beijing sentiment in America and this has sometimes bursts which aren’t fully sorted out. I believe the visit is an expression of a sentiment, rather than of a clear cut plan.",According to CNN, Pelosi's initiative has triggered concerns both in the Biden administration and the Pentagon, with US national security officials "quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks of her potential trip to Taiwan." While in 1997 Beijing and Washington managed to solve the dilemma, this time the PRC leadership might opt for a harsher response, CNN and The Guardian have warned.,US Military Expansion in Asia-Pacific is Part of Plan to Take on Russo-China Tandem, Scholar Says28 July, 16:15 GMT,Washington has been fanning US-Sino tensions for quite a while, starting with Donald Trump's tariff war against Beijing, which has yet to be halted by Joe Biden. In a candid phone conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart against "playing with fire" over Taiwan and explained that any involvement would ultimately backfire on the US.,"A Chinese general has publicly declared that Pelosi’s visit could entail a military response from Beijing," Brown says. "China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeated this. Now, with Xi’s 'You get burned playing with fire' metaphor, I think there would be a military response.",Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Defense, stated on July 26: "If the US insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will definitely take strong actions to thwart any external force's interference.",Tan highlighted that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would "seriously violate the one-China principle" and "seriously harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.",Meanwhile, Brown surmises that China's hypothetical response "might include a declared no-fly zone." However, there is a "much more elegant option," according to the author:,"[China could] take over Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, which is only two kilometers from Xiamen, off China’s Fujian Province coast. It would take only a few hours. I do not think Beijing will strike any US targets, unless attacked first.",North Korea Ready to Mobilize Nuclear Deterrence Forces at Any Moment - Kim Jong Un28 July, 01:13 GMT,The scholar also does not rule out that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) remark, made earlier this week, that Pyongyang is “fully prepared” for any military conflict with the United States is no coincidence.,"Does Biden know that China and nuclear-armed North Korea have had a mutual defense treaty since 1961?" Brown asks rhetorically. "NATO is being bled dry in Ukraine and it is imperial folly, hubris or geopolitical brinkmanship to think it can fight East Asia’s biggest and most powerful military, which is only 200 km from Taiwan.",For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetrical non-military response. Still, the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already involved in a confrontation with Russia, raising questions as to whether the US is capable of taking on Moscow and Beijing at once.,"I don’t think that either China or the US wants an escalation," says Sisci. "The talk between Biden and Xi Jinping was to avoid an escalation.",Brown also believes that Beijing's warnings have been heard by Washington.,"Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been bandied about by Washington for months now," he says. "A supposed Covid-19 infection scuttled the first trial balloon. After Biden’s phone call yesterday with Xi, I suspect another American 'postponement' is likely to occur. If not, then 'Katy, bar the door!'"。与此同时，舍内奶牛正埋头啃食饲料。　　今年7月，亚洲最大单体规模化奶牛牧场屋顶牧光互补项目在安徽正式投产，总铺设面积56万平方米，采用牛舍屋顶集中式光伏建设形式，全程不新增占用土地资源。该项目日最高发电量达30万千瓦时，预计全年发电量约8000万千瓦时。　　“‘亚洲最大’主要是指牧场的单体规模，一个牧场里面养4万头牛。”安徽华电五河现代牧业60MW光伏发电项目负责人肖军说，“光伏板装在牛棚顶上，还能给牛棚带来一定的降温效果。

C | ”8月20日拍摄的安徽华电五河现代牧业60MW光伏发电项目。(无人机照片)中新社记者 赵强 摄　　这一项目，正是安徽“光伏+”实践的一个缩影。

D | 在合肥市山南镇，总投资5.14亿元(人民币，下同)的渔光互补项目近日开工建设，预计租赁塘口约2600亩、实现年产值约3800万元；在广德市，近2700亩的茶园里敷设了近60万平方米光伏板，每年1.36亿千瓦时的绿电输出，可节约标准煤4万吨，减排二氧化碳超10万吨。　　今年2月发布的《全球风光水发电能力年景预测2026》预测，2026年中国光伏总发电能力将提高约25%。　　“光伏+”的热潮并非安徽独有。

E | 近年来，中国越来越多的省份正竞相探索这一赛道。在江苏丹阳，水台村的农光复合利用项目正加速铺开，该项目每年为该村村集体带来超60万元的净收益；在山东滨州，“渔光一体”现代产业园年均发电量接近4亿千瓦时，年营收超1.6亿元；云南构建起以“茶光、农光、牧光、林光、药光”为主线的“五光”融合发展体系，全面提升土地综合价值。　　在各类“光伏+”应用场景加速落地的背后，是国家层面政策体系的加速构建。7月，中国有关部门联合印发的《可再生能源发展“十五五”规划》提出，持续深化分布式新能源多场景多元化开发，推动与工商业、交通、建筑、农业等场景集成融合发展，加强空间集约复合利用。　　中国国家能源局近日发布数据显示，2026年上半年，中国新能源和可再生能源发展总体保持平稳态势，可再生能源发电装机达到24.55亿千瓦，占全国电力总装机的60.7%，其中风电光伏发电装机约19.5亿千瓦，占比接近一半。　　据五河县发展和改革委员会能源办公室主任钱得利介绍，该县已开发总体新能源装机规模约120万千瓦。“牧光互补项目实现了畜牧养殖与光伏发电双向收益，希望带动更多畜牧养殖区探索‘光伏+养殖’的绿色发展模式。”　　中国光伏行业协会原秘书长王勃华日前公开表示，光伏行业需摆脱“比规模、拼价格”的传统竞争模式，同时依托全产业链能耗与能效的双重约束，推动光伏产业实现从“规模为王”到“能效领先+技术创新”的关键转型。　　中国科学技术大学光学与光学工程系副研究员、中国光学学会农业光学专业委员会副秘书长张昕昱接受笔者采访时表示，从农业本位来看，“光伏+”的核心是“水-能-粮-碳资源协同最优”。土地首要保障农业生产功能，光伏发电作为附加收益。未来可拓展盐碱地农光互补、育苗光伏等新场景，实现精细化、高值化复合利用。

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